According to the Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices, Portland’s home values have appreciated by 12% from January 2015 to January 2016, making it the fastest-growing market in the entire United States. This 12% figure is over double the national average for real estate appreciation. This rise in prices is stemming primarily from high demand and low inventory; according to Zillow’s senior economist Aaron Terrazas, this low inventory is due to homeowner uncertainty over selling and the inability to afford a more expensive home.

Click HERE for the full article!

The RMLS Market Action is out for January 2016! The full market action report can be viewed HERE; however, I’ve summarized a few important points below:

• Inventory has risen a little bit from our record-low December 2015 numbers. We had 1.8 months of inventory in 1/16 as opposed to 1.2 months in 12/15. However, this is still remarkably low; while the rising numbers do give hope for some alleviation for buyers, the market is still very much in favor of sellers.
• Average home prices rose year over year by 6.7%, and the median prices rose year over year by 8.1%.
• Average market time has risen slightly from December 2015 but is still well below the January 2015 numbers.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments!

KGW News has recently published an article addressing radon levels in Portland. The full article can be found HERE. KGW mentions numerous zip codes around the city that are showing elevated radon levels compared to testing recorded in previous years.

This is significant because radon, as the article mentions, is one of the nation’s leading causes of lung cancer. Radon off-gasses from granite deposits underground; while its occurrence does display a pattern in Portland, the irregular deposits of granitic bedrock in the city’s crust make it difficult to predict with 100% accuracy which homes will be affected by radon. In the Pacific Northwest, the Missoula Floods swept chunks of granite throughout the Willamette Valley during the last Ice Age, depositing granite boulders that are currently buried below many of our city’s houses. This can result in one home in a neighborhood having elevated radon levels while another home across the street will be almost completely unaffected by radon.

Radon can be tested for in a few ways. In the context of a real estate inspection period, we utilize the short term 48 hour testing provided by many inspection companies. For homeowners, there are inexpensive long term tests available at many hardware stores. If a home does have elevated radon, radon contractors have become very adept at installing relatively cheap and long-term mitigation systems to lower the property’s radon levels.

Feel free to contact me if you have any further questions on radon!

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis recently published their research – via their “Graph of the Week” posts on oregon.gov – on who has been migrating to Oregon over the last several years. The full article can be found HERE. I’ve also taken the liberty of summarizing some of the findings below:

• Oregon is seeing a net of 40,000 new migrants per years.
• The largest group of individuals moving to Oregon is in the 25-34 age bracket; the article looks at this as a positive, as this age group is associated with functioning as the working age population.
• While the two biggest reasons people move are work and housing, the article also notes that the population moving to Oregon also bears some additional characteristics: single, young, unemployed, lower income, and higher educational attainment. The author admits that this gives some credence to the “Portlandia” stereotype but also finds the fact that these individuals are looking to start careers in Oregon encouraging.
• As population natural increase slows (this is due to a vast variety of factors that are outside the scope of this study), migration is becoming the driving force behind population growth in Oregon.
• In addition to population statistics, examining in the net flow of income as a result of migration is also valuable. According to the second graph in the article, while Oregon does lose migrants and income to Washington, those losses are more than offset by incoming Californians.

Let me know your thoughts and if you have any questions! I’d be happy to discuss with you how this pertains to the Portland real estate market specifically.

– Bill

The third quarter Gardner Report from Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner has come out. As always, it provides an interesting look at the real estate markets in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Matt begins by making a note of the overall economic overview for Oregon. He observes that while September had a decline in employment and the rate of growth has slowed somewhat, Oregon’s economy has continued to expand its job base and is expected to continue growth at rates above the national average.

Matt then goes on to make a number of real estate notes:

– Sales activity in Oregon/SW Washington rose by 21.6% when compared to 3Q 2014. This even exceeded the 20.9% growth from 2Q 2015 over 2Q 2014.

– Average home prices rose by 6.1% over the last 12 months to an average of $309,565. It does appear, however, that the rate of appreciation is starting to slow.

– Average days on market dropped by 16 days from 3Q 2014, with the average overall days on market in the region registering at 92 days. Multnomah and Washington counties clock in at less than a month of market time prior to an accepted offer.

Overall, Oregon and Southwest Washington are clearly still strong seller’s markets. If you are considering selling your home, feel free to contact me at 503-890-2928 for a market consultation! In addition, if you are thinking of buying a home but are concerned about market conditions, I’d love it if you reached out to me as well! I’d be happy to go over some effective buying strategies I’ve found while helping buyers navigate the current market.

Full link to the article is HERE. Let me know what you think!

Bill

Portland just had its hottest summer (3rd quarter) in years, with almost 10,000 homes sold in the Portland region between July and September. To put that in perspective, Q3 2015 in Portland had almost 2000 MORE solds than Q3 2014, which was an extremely busy real estate summer as well. The article below ranks the top 25 Portland Metro Area zip codes in amount of sales. 9 of the 25 are directly in Portland’s city limits, while the remainder are suburbs and nearby cities.

The article has labelled each zip code as a specific “neigbhorhood.” While this isn’t 100% accurate, as many neighborhoods are delineated on a street-by-street basis, it does provide solid insight into the areas of Portland that are seeing the hottest real estate activity.Some hightlghts include:

– Milwaukie ranks at #23 with 155 homes sold in Q3 2015. The completion of the new MAX line like influenced this uptick in activity, as many buyers – in my personal experience – are looking to take advantage of the new convenience of public transit.

– Sellwood/Moreland ranks as #16, with 183 houses sold. This almost seems low, given the frenzy that occurs whenever a Sellwood home pops up on the market, but Sellwood residents likely value the convenience and walkability of the neighborhood so much that many are reticent to sell.

See the full article HERE. Feel free to contact me with any questions! If you are in one of the neighborhoods and think this means it’s the right time to sell, give me a call! I’d be happy to discuss market value and listing strategies with you.

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According to a study done by Apartment List, Vancouver, Washington, saw the nation's single largest rent hike year-over-year from July 2014 to July 2015. The study assessed the monthly listings on their website, of which there are several hundred thousand, and came up with the following percentage changes for 2 bedroom apartments: Vancouver's 2 bedroom rents jumped by 9.8% from July 2014, to July 2015, with the average 2 bedroom rental currently renting at $1050. Portland and Seattle both saw rent spikes of 8.5% (Miami came in second at 9.3%). Portland's average rent for a 2 bedroom rental is $1550 a month, which is good for the 13th highest rent in the nation among assessed cities; Seattle's $2100 a month for a 2 bedroom is the eighth highest.

Full Article: http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2015/09/vancouver_had_nations_fastest-.html

Full Statistics: https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/july-2015-national-rental-price-monitor

These rising rents in the Portland Metro Area are forcing many buyers and renters to reconsider the calculus of "renting vs. buying" and which option is more affordable. If you'd like to have a free consultation to evaluate your buying position and whether buying may make more sense than renting, feel free to shoot me a call or email! I'd be happy to discuss it with you.

Bill – 503.890.2928 – bgrange@windermere.com 

Cash sales in the Portland Metro area totaled 21% of overall home purchases in May 2015, according to the analytics company CoreLogic. While over a fifth of homes selling for all cash is certainly a sizable percentage, this is down 1.2% from May 2014. 

Link to Full Article: CLICK HERE

This trend is likely welcome news for financed homebuyers, many of whom have been frustrated by having to compete with cash buyers in the mutiple offer situations that are happening all across Portland. The lack of a financing contingency is appealing to many sellers who are enjoying the benefits of selling a home during this period of incredibly low inventory, as this means there is one less barrier to a successful closing.

If you have any questions on what this means in relation to your buying power, please don't hesitate to give me a call or email! I'd be happy to sit down with you for a buyer consultation to review your options.

Below is the 2015 Q2 report from Matthew Gardner, Windermere's Chief Economist. As you can see, with rising home prices and continued low market time, this is a very strong seller's market. Please contact me for a complimentary consultation if you're considering selling your home! In addition, I've had a lot of success in helping buyers navigate the current market and win multiple offer situations. If you're looking for a home, I'd love to sit down with you for a free buyer consultation as well. Thanks very much!

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The Oregon economy has regained its traditional job growth advantage relative to the nation with employment growth running about one percent higher than a typical state. With the expansion in employment—in concert with rising wages—the economy appears to be in good shape. Although not yet at full employment, the direction is very positive. HOME SALES ACTIVITY Sales activity rose by 20.9% compared to the second quarter of 2014, with 16,871 homes closing. Sales rose at the fastest rate in smaller counties, with Lincoln, Klickitat, and Marion leading the way. Double-digit percentage increases in closed sales were seen in all but two counties across the region. Equally impressive was the fact that no county saw an annual drop in sales. HOME PRICES Average prices in the region rose by 7.2% year-over-year to $310,576. When compared to second quarter of 2014, Skamania County rose to the top with price growth of 34%. This is attributable to the size of the market which allows for substantial swings in price. All but five counties saw prices rise compared to the second quarter of 2014 with six showing double-digit percentage gains. Prices fell in five counties, but again, these are counties where relatively few transactions take place so they are prone to wild swings. DAYS ON MARKET The average days it takes to sell a home in the region dropped by 16 days when compared to the second quarter of 2014. The average time it took to sell a home in the region was 103 days.  There are still a few markets where the length of time it takes to sell a home did rise, but they were modest increases in smaller counties and not a cause for concern. Only 13 counties saw sales take over 100 days or more to sell—down from 18 in the second quarter of 2014. In Portland, it now takes less than a month for homes to sell.   CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, sales velocities, interest rates, and larger economics factors.

As mentioned in last quarter’s Gardner Report, inventory constraints persist, which continues to drive prices higher. Additionally, home sales continue to rise while simultaneously the number of days on market continues to fall. Because of all of this, I have moved the gauge a little further in favor of sellers. It would have moved even further had we not seen interest rates rise (albeit modestly) during second quarter. ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

For most people, buying a home is the largest purchase they'll make in their lifetimes. Consequently, there is a substantial amount of money flowing around during a real estate transactions, with earnest money deposits, payment for inspections, and the transferring of funds at closing. Currently, we have a lot of mechanisms and vehicles to protect the finances on all sides of the transaction: escrow provides a neutral third party to hold funds, different contingencies protect monies while buyers and sellers make decisions, and banks provide secure wiring for the funding of loans.

Unfortunately, despite the sophistication of the real estate industry, some intrepid wire fraudsters have nevertheless latched on to real estate transactions as a target for scamming buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the system is this: a hacker will slice into a real estate agent's email account and monitor the details of a particular transaction. Then, as closing approaches, the perpetrator of the fraud will send an official-looking email to the buyer in the transaction with fradulent wiring instructions, thus obtaining the funds themselves. It's also noted that the emails themselves are fairly convincing, with either legitimate-seeming sham accounts or hacked emails from legitimate accounts themselves. The language also displays less of the robotic syntax quirks that are obvious red flags in the more typical email scams.

Regardless of the refinement of this scam, however, buyers and real estate agents can take precautions. For instance, be aware of any reference to a "SWIFT wire" in the email. Staying in contact with escrow officers, lenders, and your real estate agent is also a great way to make sure nothing falls through the cracks and there is no space for a scammer to insert themselves into the transaction. I'm a firm believer in daily follow-ups and I think that's a great precautionary measure against fraud, in addition to just being good business. The full list of measures can be found in the link to the article below. Please feel free to contact me with any questions as well!

Link to Article: CLICK HERE