The Portland real estate market has been one of the hottest housing market’s in the nation over the last five years, seeing double digit appreciation in value year-over-year since January 2012. However, the May 2017 Case Shiller report showed an 8.89% appreciation for the previous 12 months. When comparing this to the 9.24% for the previous month and 12.47% appreciation from the last year, this suggests the Portland market may finally be plateauing. This has been borne out “in the trenches”, as we are seeing increasing market times, more price reductions, and more available inventory in even the hottest neighborhoods.

Could this be nothing more than a summer lull? It very well could be, as Portland often sees a slower market between July 4th and Labor Day. However, given the rise in interest rates – limiting buyer purchasing power – and the unsustainable rise of the market in the last few years, it is worth monitoring in case this is a more substantial shift.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? Buyers may find themselves able to compete more easily on the market, and to have the time to view houses without feeling like they only have hours to do so. Sellers will still be coming from a position of strength, but the days of 20 offers on a listing may be gone.

If you have any questions on how this impacts your own real estate situation, feel free to reach out! I would be happy to chat any time.

Bill

As we head into the heart of spring and local temperatures finally on the rise, our local real estate market is heating up, as well (not that it ever cooled off). Portland area Realtors have been praying for more listings to hit the market to help make the prospect of selling one’s home and having them find another suitable property a little easier.  Well, March did see a large increase in listings of 3,604 compared to February’s 2,521.  However, the pace of sales jumped, as well, with accepted offers of 3,043 up from February’s number of 2,369, as 28.5% increase.  The median sales price for the Greater Portland market for the past 12 months shows a 12.2% increase over the previous twelve month period.

How do these numbers translate in practical terms for home buyers and sellers in the area?  For many buyers, they are continuing to face competing offer situations for desirable homes in desirable locations.  It’s not uncommon to see some homes selling for 10% or more over their list price, and terms very favorable for the seller.  For sellers, the challenge of being able to identify their next home and get under contract still exists.  Often times, “rent back” times are negotiated to assist with the process, but many are finding temporary housing, to allow more flexibility and provide more leverage in writing an offer that is not tied to the contingency of their home selling/recording. 

To help you navigate this challenging market, be sure to have these conversations with your trusted Realtor.  Of course, if you don’t currently have one, or simply would like to discuss your real estate questions, please feel more thane welcome to contact me.   

For more details on our local market, view the latest RMLS Market Action Report 

In the Portland Metro area, home prices continued to rise year-over-year, with an 11.9% average sales price increase from May 2015 to May 2016. The median sales price rose even more: 13.3%. The average price moved from $342,300 to $383,000, and the median price moved from $295,000 to $334,200.

Months of inventory stayed steady at 1.4 months. Every month since February 2015 – with the exception of November 2015 – has been below 2 months of inventory.

With the rising prices and exceptionally low inventory, Portland has been a very strong seller’s market for quite some time. If you are thinking of selling your home, it’s a great time to do so. Let me know if there’s anything I can do to help!

Full article can be found HERE.

According to the Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices, Portland’s home values have appreciated by 12% from January 2015 to January 2016, making it the fastest-growing market in the entire United States. This 12% figure is over double the national average for real estate appreciation. This rise in prices is stemming primarily from high demand and low inventory; according to Zillow’s senior economist Aaron Terrazas, this low inventory is due to homeowner uncertainty over selling and the inability to afford a more expensive home.

Click HERE for the full article!

The RMLS Market Action is out for January 2016! The full market action report can be viewed HERE; however, I’ve summarized a few important points below:

• Inventory has risen a little bit from our record-low December 2015 numbers. We had 1.8 months of inventory in 1/16 as opposed to 1.2 months in 12/15. However, this is still remarkably low; while the rising numbers do give hope for some alleviation for buyers, the market is still very much in favor of sellers.
• Average home prices rose year over year by 6.7%, and the median prices rose year over year by 8.1%.
• Average market time has risen slightly from December 2015 but is still well below the January 2015 numbers.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments!

KGW News has recently published an article addressing radon levels in Portland. The full article can be found HERE. KGW mentions numerous zip codes around the city that are showing elevated radon levels compared to testing recorded in previous years.

This is significant because radon, as the article mentions, is one of the nation’s leading causes of lung cancer. Radon off-gasses from granite deposits underground; while its occurrence does display a pattern in Portland, the irregular deposits of granitic bedrock in the city’s crust make it difficult to predict with 100% accuracy which homes will be affected by radon. In the Pacific Northwest, the Missoula Floods swept chunks of granite throughout the Willamette Valley during the last Ice Age, depositing granite boulders that are currently buried below many of our city’s houses. This can result in one home in a neighborhood having elevated radon levels while another home across the street will be almost completely unaffected by radon.

Radon can be tested for in a few ways. In the context of a real estate inspection period, we utilize the short term 48 hour testing provided by many inspection companies. For homeowners, there are inexpensive long term tests available at many hardware stores. If a home does have elevated radon, radon contractors have become very adept at installing relatively cheap and long-term mitigation systems to lower the property’s radon levels.

Feel free to contact me if you have any further questions on radon!

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis recently published their research – via their “Graph of the Week” posts on oregon.gov – on who has been migrating to Oregon over the last several years. The full article can be found HERE. I’ve also taken the liberty of summarizing some of the findings below:

• Oregon is seeing a net of 40,000 new migrants per years.
• The largest group of individuals moving to Oregon is in the 25-34 age bracket; the article looks at this as a positive, as this age group is associated with functioning as the working age population.
• While the two biggest reasons people move are work and housing, the article also notes that the population moving to Oregon also bears some additional characteristics: single, young, unemployed, lower income, and higher educational attainment. The author admits that this gives some credence to the “Portlandia” stereotype but also finds the fact that these individuals are looking to start careers in Oregon encouraging.
• As population natural increase slows (this is due to a vast variety of factors that are outside the scope of this study), migration is becoming the driving force behind population growth in Oregon.
• In addition to population statistics, examining in the net flow of income as a result of migration is also valuable. According to the second graph in the article, while Oregon does lose migrants and income to Washington, those losses are more than offset by incoming Californians.

Let me know your thoughts and if you have any questions! I’d be happy to discuss with you how this pertains to the Portland real estate market specifically.

– Bill

The third quarter Gardner Report from Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner has come out. As always, it provides an interesting look at the real estate markets in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Matt begins by making a note of the overall economic overview for Oregon. He observes that while September had a decline in employment and the rate of growth has slowed somewhat, Oregon’s economy has continued to expand its job base and is expected to continue growth at rates above the national average.

Matt then goes on to make a number of real estate notes:

– Sales activity in Oregon/SW Washington rose by 21.6% when compared to 3Q 2014. This even exceeded the 20.9% growth from 2Q 2015 over 2Q 2014.

– Average home prices rose by 6.1% over the last 12 months to an average of $309,565. It does appear, however, that the rate of appreciation is starting to slow.

– Average days on market dropped by 16 days from 3Q 2014, with the average overall days on market in the region registering at 92 days. Multnomah and Washington counties clock in at less than a month of market time prior to an accepted offer.

Overall, Oregon and Southwest Washington are clearly still strong seller’s markets. If you are considering selling your home, feel free to contact me at 503-890-2928 for a market consultation! In addition, if you are thinking of buying a home but are concerned about market conditions, I’d love it if you reached out to me as well! I’d be happy to go over some effective buying strategies I’ve found while helping buyers navigate the current market.

Full link to the article is HERE. Let me know what you think!

Bill

Portland just had its hottest summer (3rd quarter) in years, with almost 10,000 homes sold in the Portland region between July and September. To put that in perspective, Q3 2015 in Portland had almost 2000 MORE solds than Q3 2014, which was an extremely busy real estate summer as well. The article below ranks the top 25 Portland Metro Area zip codes in amount of sales. 9 of the 25 are directly in Portland’s city limits, while the remainder are suburbs and nearby cities.

The article has labelled each zip code as a specific “neigbhorhood.” While this isn’t 100% accurate, as many neighborhoods are delineated on a street-by-street basis, it does provide solid insight into the areas of Portland that are seeing the hottest real estate activity.Some hightlghts include:

– Milwaukie ranks at #23 with 155 homes sold in Q3 2015. The completion of the new MAX line like influenced this uptick in activity, as many buyers – in my personal experience – are looking to take advantage of the new convenience of public transit.

– Sellwood/Moreland ranks as #16, with 183 houses sold. This almost seems low, given the frenzy that occurs whenever a Sellwood home pops up on the market, but Sellwood residents likely value the convenience and walkability of the neighborhood so much that many are reticent to sell.

See the full article HERE. Feel free to contact me with any questions! If you are in one of the neighborhoods and think this means it’s the right time to sell, give me a call! I’d be happy to discuss market value and listing strategies with you.

–

According to a study done by Apartment List, Vancouver, Washington, saw the nation's single largest rent hike year-over-year from July 2014 to July 2015. The study assessed the monthly listings on their website, of which there are several hundred thousand, and came up with the following percentage changes for 2 bedroom apartments: Vancouver's 2 bedroom rents jumped by 9.8% from July 2014, to July 2015, with the average 2 bedroom rental currently renting at $1050. Portland and Seattle both saw rent spikes of 8.5% (Miami came in second at 9.3%). Portland's average rent for a 2 bedroom rental is $1550 a month, which is good for the 13th highest rent in the nation among assessed cities; Seattle's $2100 a month for a 2 bedroom is the eighth highest.

Full Article: http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2015/09/vancouver_had_nations_fastest-.html

Full Statistics: https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/july-2015-national-rental-price-monitor

These rising rents in the Portland Metro Area are forcing many buyers and renters to reconsider the calculus of "renting vs. buying" and which option is more affordable. If you'd like to have a free consultation to evaluate your buying position and whether buying may make more sense than renting, feel free to shoot me a call or email! I'd be happy to discuss it with you.

Bill – 503.890.2928 – bgrange@windermere.com