Gardner Report – 2015, Second Quarter

 

Below is the 2015 Q2 report from Matthew Gardner, Windermere's Chief Economist. As you can see, with rising home prices and continued low market time, this is a very strong seller's market. Please contact me for a complimentary consultation if you're considering selling your home! In addition, I've had a lot of success in helping buyers navigate the current market and win multiple offer situations. If you're looking for a home, I'd love to sit down with you for a free buyer consultation as well. Thanks very much!

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


The Oregon economy has regained its traditional job growth advantage relative to the nation with employment growth running about one percent higher than a typical state. With the expansion in employment—in concert with rising wages—the economy appears to be in good shape. Although not yet at full employment, the direction is very positive.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY


  • Sales activity rose by 20.9% compared to the second quarter of 2014, with 16,871 homes closing.
  • Sales rose at the fastest rate in smaller counties, with Lincoln, Klickitat, and Marion leading the way.
  • Double-digit percentage increases in closed sales were seen in all but two counties across the region.
  • Equally impressive was the fact that no county saw an annual drop in sales.
Annual Change in Home Sales

HOME PRICES


  • Average prices in the region rose by 7.2% year-over-year to $310,576.
  • When compared to second quarter of 2014, Skamania County rose to the top with price growth of 34%. This is attributable to the size of the market which allows for substantial swings in price.
  • All but five counties saw prices rise compared to the second quarter of 2014 with six showing double-digit percentage gains.
  • Prices fell in five counties, but again, these are counties where relatively few transactions take place so they are prone to wild swings.
Annual Change in Home Sale Prices

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average days it takes to sell a home in the region dropped by 16 days when compared to the second quarter of 2014.
  • The average time it took to sell a home in the region was 103 days. 
  • There are still a few markets where the length of time it takes to sell a home did rise, but they were modest increases in smaller counties and not a cause for concern.
  • Only 13 counties saw sales take over 100 days or more to sell—down from 18 in the second quarter of 2014. In Portland, it now takes less than a month for homes to sell.
 
Average Days on Market

CONCLUSIONS


Housing Market Speedometer

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, sales velocities, interest rates, and larger economics factors.

As mentioned in last quarter’s Gardner Report, inventory constraints persist, which continues to drive prices higher. Additionally, home sales continue to rise while simultaneously the number of days on market continues to fall.

Because of all of this, I have moved the gauge a little further in favor of sellers. It would have moved even further had we not seen interest rates rise (albeit modestly) during second quarter.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Posted on August 21, 2015 at 8:15 pm
Bill Grange | Category: Portland Oregon Real Estate Market | Tagged , , , , , , ,

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